Cape Cod Market Report 2020 Q2

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Has the COVID-19 New Normal affected Cape Cod Real Estate?

YES! Q2 results are astoundingly Not Normal .

Q2 2020 set a New Record for the number of New Records .

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

2 Q2 2020 Cape Cod Market Results

Single Family Homes in Barnstable County

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Bill Silver

Cape Cod ARE

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 2020 Cape CodMarket Results

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Hi! I’m Bill Silver. I’m a realtor with Cape Cod Associates Real Estate in lovely downtown Harwich Port. COVID-19 only had a small effect on Q1 results. But Q2 was very different. 8 new quarterly records were set in Q2. Some new HIGHS, some new LOWS.

Fittingly, this report is also not normal. No scenic movie, no beach music. Just the facts. My goal is to explain these 8 new records. It is by far the longest report I have ever done – and the one that took the most time and effort to prepare. I hope you think it’s useful.

This report is also available as a Video. Click the VIDEO button to watch it.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 2020 Cape CodMarket Results 8 Q2 Records

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Median Sold Price Price per SqFt

Price per SqFt ADJ Q2 vs. Q1 Sales % Days on Market Days to Close (Q2) Q2 vs. Q1 Dollar Volume Inventory

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Median Sold Price – Q 2 2020

Single Family Homes | In Barnstable County | Listed on CC&I MLS

Q/Q: Q1 - 20

Y/Y: Q2 - 19

$ 435 K

$ 455 K

$ 435 K

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Median Sold Price – Q2 2020

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The data for this report is for: Single Family Homes – in Barnstable County – listed on Cape Cod and Islands MLS. The median sold price in Q2 was $455 thousand dollars. Quarter-to-Quarter, the median sold price was UP

4.6% from the $435K in Q1. The Upside of the Q1 DiP. Year-to-Year, the median sold price was also UP 4.6% from the $435K in Q2 last year. And now the most important fact on this slide, the $455K is a New Record High.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

$ K

Median Sold Price HIGH Quarter of Each Year

$500 K

455

439

435

419

412

420

407

397

388

380

365

358

349

350

341

335

319

255

Distribution of HIGH Quarters

219

178

4 %

9 %

23 %

64 %

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 08

Median Sold Price HIGH Quarter of Each Year

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This chart shows the highest quarterly median sold price for each of the last 22 years. The $455K in Q2 2020 is a New Record High. It is the first of the 8 Cape Cod real estate records set in Q2. The previous high was the $439K recorded in Q3 2019.

The distribution of the HIGH quarters shows a pattern of price increases throughout the year. By far the highest prices are in Q4 – with 86% of the high quarters happening in Q4 and Q3.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Price per Square Foot

$300 K

296

288

284

278

277

270

264

252

242

241

238

227

223

220

214

Price per Square Foot Adjusted*

156

145

141

139

134

132

126

125

121

119

116

111

109

107

103

101

HIGH Quarter of each Year

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Price per Square Foot

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Here are the Quarterly, Median Sold Price per SqFt results for the last 17 years. The $296 recorded in Q2 this year is a New Record High – the 2nd New Record set in Q2. The previous high was the $288 recorded in Q4 2019. The 3 rd New Record High set in Q2 was the $156 median sold price per Square Foot ADJUSTED.

I have not seen this metric defined anywhere else. It tracks the price per square foot of just the buildings – without including the land. I think it is an interesting indicator of construction costs and building value. I will publish results for this metric in another report. The previous high was the $145 recorded in Q3 2019.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

# Sales – Q 2 2020

Q/Q: Q1 - 20

Y/Y: Q2 - 19

775

1,210

912

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

# Sales – Q1 2020

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The number of single-family homes sold in Barnstable County in Q2 was 912. Quarter - to - quarter, Q2 Sales were UP 18% from the 775 sales in Q1. Another year with a Q1 DiP. Note, the number of Sales has never-ever gone DOWN from Q1 to Q2.

Year – to – Year, sales were DOWN 25% from the 1,210 in Q2 last year. This is not a new record, the same -25% result happened in Q2 2009. But there was a new sales record set in Q2, the +18% increase from Q1 to Q2 was a New Record Low.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 vs. Q1 Sales % 22 Year History

Cape Cod Associates

100 %

45 44

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Q2 vs. Q1 Sales %

Text

The 18% increase in Q2 is a New Record Low – the 4th Record set in Q2. The previous LOW Q2 vs. Q1 percentage was the 28% increase in 2003.

Here are the Q1 to Q2 Sales Percentages for each of the last 22 Years.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Days On Market The LOW Quarter for Each Year

Cape Cod Associates

100 %

LISTING LIFECYCLE

ACTIVE UC/PEND CLOSED

< DOM >

Distribution of Low Quarters 1 2 3 4

0 %

47 %

53 %

0 %

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Days on Market

Text

Days on Market is calculated as the number of days between the time a listing goes Active

The 46 days in Q2 is a New Record Low. The 5 th record set this quarter. The previous Low was the 47 days set in 2018. The distribution of the LOW quarters shows a pattern of faster sales for homes listed in Q3 and Q2.

and when it goes Under Contract (or Pen ding).

This chart shows the quarter with the Lowest Dom for each of the last 17 years – as far back as I have this data.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Days to Close Q2 of Each Year

Cape Cod Associates

LISTING LIFECYCLE

ACTIVE UC/PEND CLOSED

< DOM > < DTC >

32 31 32

23 23

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Days To Close

Text

If Days On Market is the first half of a listing’s duration, then Days To Close is the second half. It is calculated as the number of days between the time a listing goes Under Contract (Pending) and is officially Closed. This chart shows the number of Days To Close in each Q2 of the last 11 years. I only went back to

2010 since I do not have these results in my database and I had to hand calculate them. The 36 Days in Q2 is a New Record High. I cannot say for sure that it is an All-Time high since there may be higher results prior to 2010. I still count it as the 6 th New Record set in Q2.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Days To Close

Text

Since most of the activity that must happen during this period involves mortgage and legal issues, I asked my favorite and most trusted mortgage expert, “Why do we see this increased delay in Q2 2020?”

She said it was definitely the result of extra loan demand and extra paperwork resulting from COVID-19.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 vs. Q1 Dollar Volume % 22 Year History

100 %

0 %

-8

Q2 vs. Q1 Dollar Volume %

Text

Dollar Volume is the number of dollars sold. It combines median price with number of sales. This chart shows % of difference between Q2 and Q1 Dollar Volume for each of the last 22 Years.

The Q2 result of -8% is not only a New Record Low, it is the only time this % has ever been negative. This is the 7 th of the New Records set in Q2. The previous LOW was the +34% recorded in 2003.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 Inventory

Cape Cod Associates

Number of Actives Day One of the Quarter

4 ,000

3,535

3,416

3,361

3,200

3,108

3,094

2,842

2,706

2,603

2,595

2,299

2,029

1,735

1,697

1,610

1,447

1,204

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Q2 Inventory

Text

Inventory is calculated here as the Number of ACTIVE listings on the FIRST day of the quarter. This chart shows the Q2 Inventory for the last 17 years.

The Inventory number of 1,204 in Q2 2020 was a Record New Low. The 8 th New Record set in Q2 2020. The previous LOW was the 1,447 number in Q2 2018.

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

Q2 2020 Cape Cod Market Report

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Bill Silver Cape Cod

Cape Cod Associates

Harwich Port, MA 508-432-8600

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