Deep Dip Days On Market

Plus a FORECAST For Q2

A Deep-Dip Look at Days On Market

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Hi, I’m Bill Silver. I’m a realtor with Cape Cod Associates in Harwich Port. The goal of this report is to help Sellers and Buyers have a better preview of how long it may take for a specific property to go Under Contract.

DOM History Over the Last 4 Years

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Before we start the Deep Dip look at Days On Market let’s take a quick look back at its recent history. This info was presented in my Q4 2022 market report. It shows the major decrease in Days On Market since the onset of COVID.

Preliminary data for Q1 2023 shows that Days On Market will be 25, a 56% increase over the 16 Days On Market in Q4.

The Data For This Report

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The listing data in this report is from Single Family Homes, in Barnstable County, listed on Cape Cod and Islands MLS This represents 12 months of data from listings that CLOSED between March 1 st 2022 and Feb 28 th 2023.

This provides data from 3,151 closed listings. Note, not all listings have all the data used in some of the analyses presented in this report.

Analyses

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To achieve these Goals, we will try to understand Days On Market itself and look at some of the property characteristics that effect it .

Miles to Beach Private Docks

Calculating Days On Market Distribution of Days on Market Sold Price

Flood Zones House Types Living Space Lot Size Number of Bedrooms

Sold Price Ratio Number of Sales Towns

Calculating Days On Market (DOM)

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DOM = Date Under Contract MINUS Date On the Market

BILL

C-SOON

LISTINGS

MLS

Seems that Coming Soon may not result in Selling Sooner!

11.0

10.0

Median

9.0

34.1

35.5

# Average

29.0

1,158

1,158

3,151

Thanks CC&I MLS Tech Support!

© Bill Silver 2023

Calculating DOM

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Simply put, DOM equals the Date the listing goes Under Contract – MINUS – the Date the listing went on the market. FLEX MLS has a DOM data field that shows the official result of this calculation for each listing. From this data I was able to calculate the Median DOM (9.0) and the average DOM (29.0) for all 3,151 listings included in this study.

I also calculated the DOM myself by subtracting the Under Contract Date from the Listed Date. But, for 1,158 listings I did not get the same result. My DOM Median was (11.0) -- and my Average was (34.1).

A real Fuzzel – Wuzzel – Puzzle!

Calculating DOM

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To the rescue were the very dedicated, helpful, responsive, and knowledgeable Cape Cod and Islands Technical Support team. They quickly solved the puzzle. My DOM calculations were different than the official DOM data because the FLEX MLS List Date, when applicable, was set to the COMING SOON date and not the official ON THE MARKET date. This is why many of my DOM numbers were higher than the official MLS numbers.

The GOOD News: It provides a way to identify sold listings that were listed as Coming Soon. So, I did it, and here are the DOM results. Note, the median DOM for Coming Soon listings was 10, vs. 9 for ALL listings. It seems that Coming Soon may not actually result in Selling Sooner.

Range of DOM Medians

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The Median Days On Market for these 3,151 sold listings is 9 . Here’s the SPREAD of medians from lowest – to – highest. Here’s the SPAN of Days On Market from lowest – to – highest. It is good news for sellers when the Median DOM is low, BUT ... lets move on to the next slide.

# of Sales Distribution

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Here are the Number of Sales for each of the 9 groups of Days On Market. Knowing that the overall Median Days On Market is only 9 days may make sellers think, “Wow, that’s low, my house should sell quickly.” But it is important to remember, that the Median is the Mid-Point. Yes, half the listings sold in 9 or LESS days. Yet, half the listings sold in 9 or MORE days.

In round terms, for every house that sold in 6 days, there is one that sold in 16 days. For every house that sold in 4 days, there is one that sold in 41 days. For every house that sold in 3 days there is one that sold in 92 days. And, for every 2 that sold in 1 day there is one that sold in 224 days.

# of Sales Distribution

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It is good news for sellers when the Median DOM is low, but it is not a perfect predictor of how long it will take to sell Your Home.

So, now let’s look at some of the property factors that may affect a listing’s Days On Market.

Sold Price

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For this slide I sorted our listings by Sold Price. The DOM number for each group is the Median for that group. Note, the Median Sold Price for all the listings was: $690,000 The $300 K group includes all listings that sold from $1 through $300 K . It is interesting that these lowest priced listings did not sell the fastest. I assume that at this price point these properties did not have features of interest to a large number of buyers.

Note, this group represents only 1% of the sold listings. The $400 K -$700 K price groups represents more than half of the sold listings. For all four, the Days On Market Medians are below the overall Median of nine. The Days On Market Medians for the $800 K and $900 K price range were noticeably higher than the previous group – almost double.

Sold Price

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Strangely, when sold prices hit $1 million range their Median Days On Market went back down to 8 - which is below the overall median. Yet, the median days on market for sold prices in the $2 million range soared. I can only guess why properties in the $2 million range take almost twice as long to sell as properties in the $1 million range.

The last group represents all properties that sold for more than $2 M . The highest sale was $24 M . The median Days On Market for this group was almost triple the lower-priced groups. I think this is due to the limited number of buyers able to afford these prices.

$Sold / $List %

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These 9 groups represent the Median (Original List Price divided by Sold Price %). That’s the percentage shown at the top of each column. The number of listings per group is almost identical – with each group averaging about 11.1%. The low % for all 3,151 sold listings was 43% - a good bit less than half the original list price. The high was 177%.

Now let’s see the Median Days On Market for each group. Reading from Right-to-Left, as the Days go UP the Price goes DOWN. An important message for sellers: The longer it takes to sell your home the lower the sold price will be.

Towns

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Here are the Median Days On Market for each of the 15 towns on Cape Cod. The number of listings per group is almost identical – with each group averaging about 11.1% of the 3,151 Sold Listings. These 8 towns all had Median Days on Market that were 1-2 days LOWER than the Overall Median of 9 days. These 6 towns all had Median Days on Market that were 1-2 days HIGHER than the Overall Median of 9 days. Province Town is the one anomaly. It’s Median Days on Market of 37.0 is 4 times

the 9 – Day Overall Median. Why? I think it’s PRICE. In these sold listings, the Median Sold Price for Province Town is: $2,187,500. As we saw in the Sold Price Slide, the Median Days On Market for sales in the $2 million plus range is 38. Almost exactly the same as Province Town.

Miles to Beach

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Here is the Median Days On Market data for Miles – To – Beach. The miles-to-beach range for these groups goes from 0 - .1 miles to 2+ miles. The numbers at the top represent the number of sales for each group, and its percentage of the total.

If you do the math, you will see that the sum of the number of sales for all 6 groups does not add up to the 3,151 sold properties in this report. This is because many sold listings do not have Miles to Beach data.

Miles to Beach

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I was surprised that the highest Median Days on Market – 13.0 – was for the group closest to the water. I assume, again, that this is due to higher prices, as we saw in the Sold Prices slide. However, the group with the lowest Median Days on Market is the group next closest to the water.

And the group furthest from the water has a Median Days on Market of 9.0, equal to the Overall Median. I assume this is due to lower prices.

Private Docks

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What is really interesting, actually puzzling, is that both NO and YES properties have median DOMs that are more than 2 to 3 times higher than other properties in their respective price range. Maybe dock owners value a dock more than buyers do.

This slide compares waterfront properties with Private Docks vs. waterfront properties without docks. Note, there is no breakdown by salt water vs. fresh water. Here we see again the phenomenon where the assumed more desirable properties (with a private dock) have a HIGHER Median Days On Market (29) than the (19) of the assumed less desirable properties with NO dock.

Flood Zones

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Here are the 3 recognized flood zones:

The number and percentage of our sold listings that are in each Flood Zone shows how rare VE Zones are and how the vast majority of properties are NOT in a Flood Zone.

VE – Flooding with wav

The degree of danger attached to VE and AE zones seems to significantly affect their median Days On Market.

House Types

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Here are the 22 House Types recognized by CC&I MLS. This data includes the number of sales for each type and their Median Days On Market. Ranch and Cape style homes are by far the most popular. And their Median Days On Market are below the overall median of 9. The bottom 3 house types had the highest Median Days On Market, even though there were so few of them on the market.

Sellers and Listing Agents might use this data to get an approximation of Days On Market for their house.

Living Space ( Sqft )

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Here are 6 groups representing the number of square feet of living space for our sold listings. The range of Living Space goes from a low of 250 Square Feet to a high of 15,000 Square Feet.

Except for the group with the smallest Square Feet, the Median Days On Market goes UP as the size goes UP. We’ve seen this trend before. . . The Bigger, the More Expensive, the Higher Days On Market.

Lot Size ( Acres )

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Here are 5 groups representing the Lot Size of our sold listings. Also shown is the number sold for each group. The range of Lot Sizes goes from a low of less than One Quarter of an Acre to a high of 30 Acres.

For this slide the order of Days On Market is exactly the same as the order of Lot Size.

A Deep-Dip Look at Days On Market

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Here are 6 groups representing the Number of Bedrooms in our sold listings. The range of Number of Bedrooms goes from a low of 1 to a high of 6+. One property, the one with the highest number, has 17 bedrooms.

Except for the One Bedroom Properties, the Median Days On Market for each group goes UP as the number of bedrooms goes UP.

A Deep-Dip Look at Days On Market

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www.BillSilver.com

That’s my Deep Dip look at Days On Market for Cape Cod Real Estate. Thanks for watching. Each property characteristic influences Days On Market. The hard part is figuring out how all these effects combine to determine the actual Days On Market for a specific property. Let me know if you have any questions or suggestions. You can email me at: bill@billsilver.com To see all my Cape Cod Market Reports, Real Estate Guides, and Cape Cod Lifestyle content, go to my web site:

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Bill Silver Cape Cod