Hi! I’m Bill Silver. I am a realtor with Cape Cod Associates Real Estate in lovely downtown Harwich Port. We thought Q2 and Q3 results were amazing. But Q4 blew the roof off the Cape Cod real estate market again. This report details the record- breaking Q4 Median Sold Price
and Number of Sales. It also outlines the other 14 records set in Q4. At the end there is a Pop- Up Forecast for Q1 – 2021 . This report is also available as a Video. To watch it Click the VIDEO button.
The data for this report is for: Single Family Homes – in Barnstable County – listed on Cape Cod and Islands MLS. The median sold price in Q4 was $564 thousand dollars. This is the highest median sold price in the history of Cape Cod real estate – and breaks the record just set in Q3.
Quarter-to-Quarter, the median sold price was UP 6.4% from the $530K in Q3. Year-to-Year, the median sold price was UP 28.8% from the $438K in Q4 last year. This is a record Year-to-Year price increase.
Here are the Number of Sales for each Quarter over the last 4 years. This visual shows how COVID hindered sales in Q1 and Q2 and then boomeranged UP in Q3 and Q4. Even in this unusual year sales still had the ever-present Q1Dip. Sales (and Price too) were DOWN in Q1 and UP in Q2.
2. The 28.8% increase in the Median Sold Price was the highest percent of change ever. It topped the old high of 25.3% set in Q3 2000. 3. The 1,524 sales in Q4 were the highest number of Q4 sales ever. The previous high was the 1,193 sales in Q4 2016. 4. The 42.0% increase in Q4 sales over Q4 last year was the highest Q4 increase ever. It topped the 34.3% increase in Q4 2012.
INTRO : Here is a brief description of the records set in Q4 2020. Some are a bit obscure. But I think they give us added insight into just how much our real estate market has changed in the year of COVID. An * asterisk indicates that the previous record had just been set in Q3 2020. 1. The Q4 median sold price of $564K was a new high, breaking the old record of $530K just set in Q3.
5. The Q4 Average Inventory was 647 - a record new LOW. The previous low was 1,066 set way back in Q1 2004 – and was 65% higher than the Q4 647. 6. The % of decrease was a much larger -63.1% -- than the previous record of -43.9% set in Q1 2020.
7. Q4 was the best SELLER’s market ever. The median Days On Market was 21 – a new low. This erased the previous low of 35 set in Q3. 8. The Year – to – Year % of change -63.2% is almost double the previous low of - 32.9% set in Q2 2017.
9. Houses on Cape Cod are slowly getting bigger. The median square feet of living area in Q4 was 1,771 SqFt – only 1 SqFt higher than the 1,770 SqFt record set in Q3. 10. The Q4 Price per Square Foot of $340K is a new all- time high – topping the previous high of $315K in Q3.
11. The Q4 Year-to-Year % of increase in Price per SqFt was 18.1%. This is a new high – replacing the previous high of 11.3% in Q3. 12. This metric helps track construction costs. The Q4 $176K per SqFt of the building space is a new high. It replaces the $164K record in Q3.
13. The Q4 Year-to-Year % of increase for this metric was 22.2% -- a new record. The previous high was 18.0% in Q2-2012. 14. The Q4 median ratio of Sold Price to Original List Price was 99.4%. The previous high was 97.4% in Q3. 15. The Q4 median ratio of Sold Price to Final List Price was 100.0%. The previous high was
98.3% in Q3. This means that more than half of all listings sold in Q4 were at or above list price. 16. In Q2 this year the Cape Cod real estate market set 8 records. This was outdone in Q3 when the market set 13 records. And Q4 did it again, with the market setting 15 new records. This is itself a record – for a total of 16 records in Q4.
I’ve let the uncertainty of COVID stop my forecasts for too long, so here goes. The Number of Sales forecast for Q1 is 991 . This is a new record for the number of Q1 sales. Yet, it will be down 35% from Q4. Sales are always down in Q1 every year. It’s the Q1 DiP . Year – to – Year sales will be UP 28% - from Q1 last year. This will be a new record for Year - to -Year Q1 % of sales increase.
No one really knows what will happen to prices in 2021. But, in Q1 prices are going UP again. My forecasted median sold price is $605K – a new record high. The 7.3% increase from Q4 will be a record high Q1 percentage of price increase. The 39.1% increase from Q1 last year will be the highest Year - to - Year percentage of price increase ever.